Tatran Krásno 0–0 Rača: Result & Stats

Tatran Krásno

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rača

9/8/2024

3. liga - West · West - 6Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tatran Krásno34%

×Draw29%

Rača38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran KrásnoExpected goals in this matchRača

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.17

Tatran Krásno

1.09

Rača

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 46 away

0.81

creates per match

0.83

1.50

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Tatran Krásno

0.81

Rača

0.83

allows per match

Tatran Krásno

1.50

Rača

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Rača+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Rača →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw

62%

Tatran Krásno or Rača

71%

Draw or Rača

66%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+

13%

Rača wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals

66%

Tatran Krásno 2+ goals

30%

Tatran Krásno 3+ goals

10%

Rača 1+ goals

69%

Rača 2+ goals

33%

Rača 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)

47%

Rača (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Rača away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Rača defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.09

Rača attack 0.83 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more

34%

level

29%

Rača scores more

38%

Rača at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rača will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff