Rača 2–1 Tatran Krásno: Result & Stats

Rača

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tatran Krásno

3/30/2025

3. liga - West · West - 23Štadión FK Rača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rača61%

×Draw21%

Tatran Krásno18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RačaExpected goals in this matchTatran Krásno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.95

Rača

1.98

Tatran Krásno

0.95

Rača creates 108% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 16 away

1.78

creates per match

0.81

1.09

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Rača

1.78

Tatran Krásno

0.81

allows per match

Rača

1.09

Tatran Krásno

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rača+0.00on par

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rača ↓

Tatran Krásno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rača or draw

82%

Rača or Tatran Krásno

79%

Draw or Tatran Krásno

39%

Winning margin

Rača wins by 2+

37%

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rača 1+ goals

86%

Rača 2+ goals

59%

Rača 3+ goals

31%

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals

61%

Tatran Krásno 2+ goals

25%

Tatran Krásno 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rača (draw refunded)

78%

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rača at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

Tatran Krásno away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rača attack 1.78 + Tatran Krásno defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.98

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Rača defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rača scores more

61%

level

21%

Tatran Krásno scores more

18%

Rača at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rača will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff