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Tatran Krásno vs Podkonice — 3. liga - West 2020

Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Podkonice
Podkonice
11/9/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 15Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tatran Krásno36%
×Draw26%
Podkonice38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Krásno
1.29
Podkonice
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tatran Krásno
0.81
Podkonice
1.18

allows per match

Tatran Krásno
1.50
Podkonice
1.76

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par
Podkonice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Podkonice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw
62%
Tatran Krásno or Podkonice
74%
Draw or Podkonice
64%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
16%
Podkonice wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
72%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
37%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
14%
Podkonice 1+ goals
74%
Podkonice 2+ goals
39%
Podkonice 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
48%
Podkonice (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Podkonice away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Podkonice defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.29

Podkonice attack 1.18 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more
36%
level
26%
Podkonice scores more
38%

Podkonice at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Podkonice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatran Krásno vs Podkonice

Podkonice beat Tatran Krásno 3-0 in 3. liga - West on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou in Krásno nad Kysucou.