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Podkonice vs Tatran Krásno — 3. liga - West 2020

Podkonice
Podkonice
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
5/18/20253. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 32Štadión na Brodku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Podkonice61%
×Draw22%
Tatran Krásno17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podkonice
1.83
Tatran Krásno
0.83

Podkonice creates 120% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 16 away

creates per match

Podkonice
1.48
Tatran Krásno
0.81

allows per match

Podkonice
0.85
Tatran Krásno
2.19

finishing

Podkonice+0.00on par
Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podkonice ↓

Tatran Krásno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Podkonice or draw
83%
Podkonice or Tatran Krásno
78%
Draw or Tatran Krásno
39%

Winning margin

Podkonice wins by 2+
36%
Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Podkonice 1+ goals
84%
Podkonice 2+ goals
54%
Podkonice 3+ goals
28%
Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
56%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
20%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Podkonice (draw refunded)
79%
Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podkonice at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.85 · 46 matches

Tatran Krásno away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podkonice attack 1.48 + Tatran Krásno defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.83

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Podkonice defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Podkonice scores more
61%
level
22%
Tatran Krásno scores more
17%

Podkonice at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Podkonice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podkonice vs Tatran Krásno

Podkonice beat Tatran Krásno 1-0 in 3. liga - West on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Štadión na Brodku in Podkonice.