Tatran Krásno 1–2 Námestovo: Result & Stats

Tatran Krásno

FT

1 – 2

Námestovo

6/13/2021

3. liga - Center · Center - 15Štadión TATRAN Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Tatran Krásno37%

×Draw23%

Námestovo40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran KrásnoExpected goals in this matchNámestovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.75

Tatran Krásno

1.69

Námestovo

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

2.23

creates per match

2.10

1.41

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Tatran Krásno

2.23

Námestovo

2.10

allows per match

Tatran Krásno

1.41

Námestovo

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Námestovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Námestovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw

60%

Tatran Krásno or Námestovo

77%

Draw or Námestovo

63%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+

19%

Námestovo wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals

82%

Tatran Krásno 2+ goals

50%

Tatran Krásno 3+ goals

24%

Námestovo 1+ goals

83%

Námestovo 2+ goals

52%

Námestovo 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)

48%

Námestovo (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Námestovo away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 2.23 + Námestovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.69

Námestovo attack 2.10 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more

37%

level

23%

Námestovo scores more

40%

Námestovo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Námestovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff