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Námestovo vs Tatran Krásno — 3. liga - Center 2020

Námestovo
Námestovo
CANC
15:30
Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
6/2/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 30Štadión MŠK Námestovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Námestovo72%
×Draw16%
Tatran Krásno11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Námestovo
2.50
Tatran Krásno
0.88

Námestovo creates 184% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

creates per match

Námestovo
2.95
Tatran Krásno
1.04

allows per match

Námestovo
0.71
Tatran Krásno
2.04

finishing

Námestovo+0.00on par
Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Námestovo ↓

Tatran Krásno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Námestovo or draw
89%
Námestovo or Tatran Krásno
84%
Draw or Tatran Krásno
28%

Winning margin

Námestovo wins by 2+
50%
Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Námestovo 1+ goals
92%
Námestovo 2+ goals
71%
Námestovo 3+ goals
45%
Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
59%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
22%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Námestovo (draw refunded)
86%
Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Námestovo at home — creates 2.95, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Tatran Krásno away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Námestovo attack 2.95 + Tatran Krásno defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.50

Tatran Krásno attack 1.04 + Námestovo defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Námestovo scores more
72%
level
16%
Tatran Krásno scores more
11%

Námestovo at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Námestovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Námestovo vs Tatran Krásno — Match Preview

Námestovo face Tatran Krásno on June 2, 2021 in this 3. liga - Center fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Námestovo host Tatran Krásno at Štadión MŠK Námestovo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.