Tatran Krásno 2–1 Malacky: Result & Stats

Tatran Krásno

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Malacky

3/26/2025

3. liga - West · West - 22Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tatran Krásno33%

×Draw27%

Malacky41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran KrásnoExpected goals in this matchMalacky

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.34

Tatran Krásno

1.17

Malacky

1.34

Malacky creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 45 away

0.81

creates per match

1.18

1.50

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Tatran Krásno

0.81

Malacky

1.18

allows per match

Tatran Krásno

1.50

Malacky

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Malacky+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Malacky →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw

59%

Tatran Krásno or Malacky

73%

Draw or Malacky

67%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+

13%

Malacky wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals

69%

Tatran Krásno 2+ goals

33%

Tatran Krásno 3+ goals

11%

Malacky 1+ goals

74%

Malacky 2+ goals

39%

Malacky 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)

44%

Malacky (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Malacky away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Malacky defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.17

Malacky attack 1.18 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more

33%

level

27%

Malacky scores more

41%

Malacky at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Malacky will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff