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Malacky vs Tatran Krásno — 3. liga - West 2020

Malacky
Malacky
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
9/1/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 5Futbalový štadión FC Malacky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Malacky58%
×Draw22%
Tatran Krásno19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malacky
1.86
Tatran Krásno
0.96

Malacky creates 94% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 16 away

creates per match

Malacky
1.54
Tatran Krásno
0.81

allows per match

Malacky
1.11
Tatran Krásno
2.19

finishing

Malacky+0.00on par
Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malacky ↓

Tatran Krásno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Malacky or draw
81%
Malacky or Tatran Krásno
78%
Draw or Tatran Krásno
42%

Winning margin

Malacky wins by 2+
34%
Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Malacky 1+ goals
84%
Malacky 2+ goals
55%
Malacky 3+ goals
28%
Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
62%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
25%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Malacky (draw refunded)
75%
Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malacky at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Tatran Krásno away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malacky attack 1.54 + Tatran Krásno defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.86

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Malacky defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Malacky scores more
58%
level
22%
Tatran Krásno scores more
19%

Malacky at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Malacky will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malacky vs Tatran Krásno

Malacky beat Tatran Krásno 1-0 in 3. liga - West on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FC Malacky in Malacky.