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Tatran Krásno vs Hamsik Academy — 3. liga - West 2020

Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Hamsik Academy
Hamsik Academy
8/18/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 3Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tatran Krásno29%
×Draw26%
Hamsik Academy45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Krásno
1.11
Hamsik Academy
1.47

Hamsik Academy creates 32% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tatran Krásno
0.81
Hamsik Academy
1.44

allows per match

Tatran Krásno
1.50
Hamsik Academy
1.42

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par
Hamsik Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Hamsik Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw
55%
Tatran Krásno or Hamsik Academy
74%
Draw or Hamsik Academy
71%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
11%
Hamsik Academy wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
67%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
30%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
10%
Hamsik Academy 1+ goals
77%
Hamsik Academy 2+ goals
43%
Hamsik Academy 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
39%
Hamsik Academy (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Hamsik Academy away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Hamsik Academy defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.11

Hamsik Academy attack 1.44 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more
29%
level
26%
Hamsik Academy scores more
45%

Hamsik Academy at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hamsik Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatran Krásno vs Hamsik Academy

Hamsik Academy beat Tatran Krásno 5-1 in 3. liga - West on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou in Krásno nad Kysucou.