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Hamsik Academy vs Tatran Krásno — 3. liga - West 2020

Hamsik Academy
Hamsik Academy
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
3/15/20253. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 20Futbalový štadión Rudlová UT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hamsik Academy57%
×Draw24%
Tatran Krásno19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamsik Academy
1.69
Tatran Krásno
0.86

Hamsik Academy creates 97% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 16 away

creates per match

Hamsik Academy
1.20
Tatran Krásno
0.81

allows per match

Hamsik Academy
0.91
Tatran Krásno
2.19

finishing

Hamsik Academy+0.00on par
Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamsik Academy ↓

Tatran Krásno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hamsik Academy or draw
81%
Hamsik Academy or Tatran Krásno
76%
Draw or Tatran Krásno
43%

Winning margin

Hamsik Academy wins by 2+
32%
Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hamsik Academy 1+ goals
82%
Hamsik Academy 2+ goals
50%
Hamsik Academy 3+ goals
24%
Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
58%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
21%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hamsik Academy (draw refunded)
75%
Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamsik Academy at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.91 · 46 matches

Tatran Krásno away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamsik Academy attack 1.20 + Tatran Krásno defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.69

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Hamsik Academy defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hamsik Academy scores more
57%
level
24%
Tatran Krásno scores more
19%

Hamsik Academy at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hamsik Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Hamsik Academy 4–2 Tatran Krásno

Hamsik Academy beat Tatran Krásno 4-2 in 3. liga - West on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rudlová UT in Banská Bystrica.