Tatran Krásno 1–4 Dolný Kubín: Result & Stats

Tatran Krásno

FT

1 – 4

Dolný Kubín

8/8/2021

3. liga - Center · Center - 2Štadión TATRAN Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tatran Krásno48%

×Draw21%

Dolný Kubín31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran KrásnoExpected goals in this matchDolný Kubín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.69

Tatran Krásno

2.15

Dolný Kubín

1.69

Tatran Krásno creates 27% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

2.23

creates per match

1.96

1.41

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Tatran Krásno

2.23

Dolný Kubín

1.96

allows per match

Tatran Krásno

1.41

Dolný Kubín

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Dolný Kubín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw

69%

Tatran Krásno or Dolný Kubín

79%

Draw or Dolný Kubín

52%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+

28%

Dolný Kubín wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals

88%

Tatran Krásno 2+ goals

63%

Tatran Krásno 3+ goals

36%

Dolný Kubín 1+ goals

82%

Dolný Kubín 2+ goals

50%

Dolný Kubín 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)

61%

Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 1.96, concedes 2.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 2.23 + Dolný Kubín defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.15

Dolný Kubín attack 1.96 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more

48%

level

21%

Dolný Kubín scores more

31%

Tatran Krásno at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tatran Krásno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff