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Dolný Kubín vs Tatran Krásno — 3. liga - Center 2020

Dolný Kubín
Dolný Kubín
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
4/2/20223. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 17Futbalový štadión MUDr. Ivana Chodáka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Dolný Kubín61%
×Draw20%
Tatran Krásno19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolný Kubín
2.24
Tatran Krásno
1.17

Dolný Kubín creates 91% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

creates per match

Dolný Kubín
2.43
Tatran Krásno
1.04

allows per match

Dolný Kubín
1.29
Tatran Krásno
2.04

finishing

Dolný Kubín+0.00on par
Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolný Kubín ↓

Tatran Krásno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Dolný Kubín or draw
81%
Dolný Kubín or Tatran Krásno
80%
Draw or Tatran Krásno
39%

Winning margin

Dolný Kubín wins by 2+
39%
Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dolný Kubín 1+ goals
89%
Dolný Kubín 2+ goals
65%
Dolný Kubín 3+ goals
38%
Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
69%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
33%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)
76%
Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolný Kubín at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Tatran Krásno away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolný Kubín attack 2.43 + Tatran Krásno defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.24

Tatran Krásno attack 1.04 + Dolný Kubín defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dolný Kubín scores more
61%
level
20%
Tatran Krásno scores more
19%

Dolný Kubín at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dolný Kubín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Dolný Kubín 4–1 Tatran Krásno

Dolný Kubín beat Tatran Krásno 4-1 in 3. liga - Center on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MUDr. Ivana Chodáka in Dolný Kubín.