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Tatran Krásno vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom — 3. liga - West 2020

Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
4/6/20253. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 24Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tatran Krásno34%
×Draw28%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Krásno
1.11
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

creates per match

Tatran Krásno
0.81
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
0.90

allows per match

Tatran Krásno
1.50
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.42

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw
62%
Tatran Krásno or Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
72%
Draw or Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
66%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
13%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
67%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
30%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
10%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1+ goals
70%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 2+ goals
34%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
47%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.11

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom attack 0.90 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more
34%
level
28%
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom scores more
38%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatran Krásno vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

Tatran Krásno beat Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 2-0 in 3. liga - West on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Štadión Tatran Krásno nad Kysucou in Krásno nad Kysucou.