Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 3–0 Tatran Krásno

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

FT

3 – 0

Tatran Krásno

10/2/2024

3. liga - West · West - 7Futbalový štadión OFK Baník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom67%

×Draw20%

Tatran Krásno13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník Lehota p.VtáčnikomExpected goals in this matchTatran Krásno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.78

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

2.08

Tatran Krásno

0.78

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom creates 167% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 16 away

1.97

creates per match

0.81

0.74

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

1.97

Tatran Krásno

0.81

allows per match

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

0.74

Tatran Krásno

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom+0.00on par

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom ↓

Tatran Krásno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom or draw

87%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom or Tatran Krásno

80%

Draw or Tatran Krásno

33%

Winning margin

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom wins by 2+

43%

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1+ goals

87%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 2+ goals

61%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 3+ goals

34%

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals

54%

Tatran Krásno 2+ goals

18%

Tatran Krásno 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom (draw refunded)

84%

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.74 · 31 matches

Tatran Krásno away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom attack 1.97 + Tatran Krásno defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.08

Tatran Krásno attack 0.81 + Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom scores more

67%

level

20%

Tatran Krásno scores more

13%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff