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Tatran Krásno vs Baník Kalinovo — 3. liga - Center 2020

Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
CANC
14:00
Baník Kalinovo
Baník Kalinovo
3/28/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 16Štadión TATRAN Krásno nad Kysucou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tatran Krásno56%
×Draw22%
Baník Kalinovo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Krásno
1.93
Baník Kalinovo
1.14

Tatran Krásno creates 69% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

creates per match

Tatran Krásno
2.23
Baník Kalinovo
0.86

allows per match

Tatran Krásno
1.41
Baník Kalinovo
1.63

finishing

Tatran Krásno+0.00on par
Baník Kalinovo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Krásno ↓

Baník Kalinovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tatran Krásno or draw
78%
Tatran Krásno or Baník Kalinovo
78%
Draw or Baník Kalinovo
44%

Winning margin

Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
32%
Baník Kalinovo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
85%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
57%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
30%
Baník Kalinovo 1+ goals
68%
Baník Kalinovo 2+ goals
32%
Baník Kalinovo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
71%
Baník Kalinovo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Krásno at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Baník Kalinovo away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.63 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Krásno attack 2.23 + Baník Kalinovo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.93

Baník Kalinovo attack 0.86 + Tatran Krásno defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tatran Krásno scores more
56%
level
22%
Baník Kalinovo scores more
22%

Tatran Krásno at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tatran Krásno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tatran Krásno face Baník Kalinovo (3. liga - Center)

3. liga - Center returns with Tatran Krásno hosting Baník Kalinovo. Match starts March 28, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tatran Krásno host Baník Kalinovo at Štadión TATRAN Krásno nad Kysucou.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.