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Baník Kalinovo vs Tatran Krásno — 3. liga - Center 2020

Baník Kalinovo
Baník Kalinovo
FT
1 – 1
Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
8/2/20203. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 1Štadión Kalinovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Baník Kalinovo51%
×Draw23%
Tatran Krásno26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Kalinovo
1.83
Tatran Krásno
1.24

Baník Kalinovo creates 48% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

creates per match

Baník Kalinovo
1.61
Tatran Krásno
1.04

allows per match

Baník Kalinovo
1.44
Tatran Krásno
2.04

finishing

Baník Kalinovo+0.00on par
Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Kalinovo ↓

Tatran Krásno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Baník Kalinovo or draw
74%
Baník Kalinovo or Tatran Krásno
77%
Draw or Tatran Krásno
49%

Winning margin

Baník Kalinovo wins by 2+
28%
Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Baník Kalinovo 1+ goals
84%
Baník Kalinovo 2+ goals
54%
Baník Kalinovo 3+ goals
28%
Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
71%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
35%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Baník Kalinovo (draw refunded)
66%
Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Kalinovo at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

Tatran Krásno away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Kalinovo attack 1.61 + Tatran Krásno defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.83

Tatran Krásno attack 1.04 + Baník Kalinovo defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Baník Kalinovo scores more
51%
level
23%
Tatran Krásno scores more
26%

Baník Kalinovo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Baník Kalinovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Baník Kalinovo 1–1 Tatran Krásno

Baník Kalinovo and Tatran Krásno drew 1-1 in 3. liga - Center on August 2, 2020.

The match was played at Štadión Kalinovo in Kalinovo.