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Tatran Bohunice vs Start Brno — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Tatran Bohunice
Tatran Bohunice
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Start Brno
Start Brno
3/16/20243. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 19Stadion Tatran Brno Bohunice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tatran Bohunice32%
×Draw24%
Start Brno44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Bohunice
1.32
Start Brno
1.60

Start Brno creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 33 away

creates per match

Tatran Bohunice
0.88
Start Brno
1.39

allows per match

Tatran Bohunice
1.82
Start Brno
1.76

finishing

Tatran Bohunice+0.00on par
Start Brno+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Bohunice ↓

Start Brno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tatran Bohunice or draw
56%
Tatran Bohunice or Start Brno
76%
Draw or Start Brno
68%

Winning margin

Tatran Bohunice wins by 2+
14%
Start Brno wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Tatran Bohunice 1+ goals
73%
Tatran Bohunice 2+ goals
38%
Tatran Bohunice 3+ goals
15%
Start Brno 1+ goals
80%
Start Brno 2+ goals
47%
Start Brno 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Tatran Bohunice (draw refunded)
42%
Start Brno (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Bohunice at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Start Brno away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Bohunice attack 0.88 + Start Brno defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.32

Start Brno attack 1.39 + Tatran Bohunice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tatran Bohunice scores more
32%
level
24%
Start Brno scores more
44%

Start Brno at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Start Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatran Bohunice vs Start Brno

Tatran Bohunice beat Start Brno 3-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Tatran Brno Bohunice in Brno.