Start Brno 1–0 Tatran Bohunice: Result & Stats

Start Brno

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tatran Bohunice

8/11/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 2Hřiště Loosova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Start Brno38%

×Draw26%

Tatran Bohunice36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Start BrnoExpected goals in this matchTatran Bohunice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.34

Start Brno

1.37

Tatran Bohunice

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

1.09

creates per match

0.88

1.80

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Start Brno

1.09

Tatran Bohunice

0.88

allows per match

Start Brno

1.80

Tatran Bohunice

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Start Brno+0.00on par

Tatran Bohunice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start Brno ↓

Tatran Bohunice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Start Brno or draw

64%

Start Brno or Tatran Bohunice

74%

Draw or Tatran Bohunice

62%

Winning margin

Start Brno wins by 2+

17%

Tatran Bohunice wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Start Brno 1+ goals

75%

Start Brno 2+ goals

40%

Start Brno 3+ goals

16%

Tatran Bohunice 1+ goals

74%

Tatran Bohunice 2+ goals

39%

Tatran Bohunice 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Start Brno (draw refunded)

51%

Tatran Bohunice (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start Brno at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.80 · 35 matches

Tatran Bohunice away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start Brno attack 1.09 + Tatran Bohunice defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.37

Tatran Bohunice attack 0.88 + Start Brno defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Start Brno scores more

38%

level

26%

Tatran Bohunice scores more

36%

Start Brno at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Start Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff