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Tatran Bohunice vs Stará Říše — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Tatran Bohunice
Tatran Bohunice
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Stará Říše
Stará Říše
10/15/20224. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 11Stadion Tatran Brno Bohunice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tatran Bohunice63%
×Draw21%
Stará Říše17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Bohunice
2.06
Stará Říše
0.95

Tatran Bohunice creates 117% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 55 away

creates per match

Tatran Bohunice
1.79
Stará Říše
0.95

allows per match

Tatran Bohunice
0.95
Stará Říše
2.33

finishing

Tatran Bohunice+0.00on par
Stará Říše+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Bohunice ↓

Stará Říše →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tatran Bohunice or draw
83%
Tatran Bohunice or Stará Říše
79%
Draw or Stará Říše
37%

Winning margin

Tatran Bohunice wins by 2+
39%
Stará Říše wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tatran Bohunice 1+ goals
87%
Tatran Bohunice 2+ goals
61%
Tatran Bohunice 3+ goals
34%
Stará Říše 1+ goals
61%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
25%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tatran Bohunice (draw refunded)
79%
Stará Říše (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Bohunice at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

Stará Říše away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Bohunice attack 1.79 + Stará Říše defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Stará Říše attack 0.95 + Tatran Bohunice defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tatran Bohunice scores more
63%
level
21%
Stará Říše scores more
17%

Tatran Bohunice at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tatran Bohunice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Tatran Bohunice 2–1 Stará Říše

Tatran Bohunice beat Stará Říše 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Tatran Brno Bohunice in Brno.