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Stará Říše vs Tatran Bohunice — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Stará Říše
Stará Říše
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tatran Bohunice
Tatran Bohunice
5/28/20234. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 24Stadion FSC Stará Říše

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Stará Říše36%
×Draw23%
Tatran Bohunice42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stará Říše
1.62
Tatran Bohunice
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 43 away

creates per match

Stará Říše
1.80
Tatran Bohunice
1.47

allows per match

Stará Říše
2.06
Tatran Bohunice
1.44

finishing

Stará Říše+0.00on par
Tatran Bohunice+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stará Říše ↓

Tatran Bohunice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Stará Říše or draw
58%
Stará Říše or Tatran Bohunice
77%
Draw or Tatran Bohunice
64%

Winning margin

Stará Říše wins by 2+
17%
Tatran Bohunice wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Stará Říše 1+ goals
80%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
48%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
22%
Tatran Bohunice 1+ goals
83%
Tatran Bohunice 2+ goals
53%
Tatran Bohunice 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Stará Říše (draw refunded)
46%
Tatran Bohunice (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stará Říše at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.06 · 49 matches

Tatran Bohunice away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.44 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stará Říše attack 1.80 + Tatran Bohunice defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.62

Tatran Bohunice attack 1.47 + Stará Říše defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stará Říše scores more
36%
level
23%
Tatran Bohunice scores more
42%

Tatran Bohunice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tatran Bohunice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stará Říše vs Tatran Bohunice

Tatran Bohunice beat Stará Říše 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FSC Stará Říše in Stará Říše.