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Tatran Bohunice vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Tatran Bohunice
Tatran Bohunice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
P. Nemec 80'
P. Goj 50'
11/17/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 16Stadion Tatran Brno Bohunice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tatran Bohunice26%
×Draw26%
Slovan Rosice48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Bohunice
1.06
Slovan Rosice
1.54

Slovan Rosice creates 45% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 66 away

creates per match

Tatran Bohunice
0.88
Slovan Rosice
1.27

allows per match

Tatran Bohunice
1.82
Slovan Rosice
1.24

finishing

Tatran Bohunice+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Bohunice ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tatran Bohunice or draw
52%
Tatran Bohunice or Slovan Rosice
74%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
74%

Winning margin

Tatran Bohunice wins by 2+
10%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Tatran Bohunice 1+ goals
65%
Tatran Bohunice 2+ goals
29%
Tatran Bohunice 3+ goals
9%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
79%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
45%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tatran Bohunice (draw refunded)
35%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Bohunice at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Bohunice attack 0.88 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Tatran Bohunice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tatran Bohunice scores more
26%
level
26%
Slovan Rosice scores more
48%

Slovan Rosice at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
E. Sedlacek
50'
P. Goj
58'
D. Krska← D. Krska
61'
T. Dobrovodsky← T. Dobrovodsky
72'
F. Nemecek← F. Nemecek
72'
F. Matula← F. Matula
76'
A. Krejci← A. Krejci
78'
M. Sehnal← M. Sehnal
78'
R. Sevcik← R. Sevcik
80'
P. Nemec
83'
K. Kulik← K. Kulik
83'
D. Prerovsky← D. Prerovsky
90+3'
M. Krsak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Tatran Bohunice 1–1 Slovan Rosice

Tatran Bohunice and Slovan Rosice drew 1-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on November 17, 2023.

Goals: P. Goj (50'), P. Nemec (80').

The match was played at Stadion Tatran Brno Bohunice in Brno.