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Slovan Rosice vs Tatran Bohunice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Tatran Bohunice
Tatran Bohunice
D. Moucka 34' (pen)
M. Kral 4' (OG)
T. Koren 87'
M. Vintr 76'
5/1/20243. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 33Hřiště FC Slovan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Slovan Rosice56%
×Draw25%
Tatran Bohunice20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Rosice
1.63
Tatran Bohunice
0.86

Slovan Rosice creates 90% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Slovan Rosice
1.60
Tatran Bohunice
0.88

allows per match

Slovan Rosice
0.85
Tatran Bohunice
1.65

finishing

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par
Tatran Bohunice+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Rosice ↓

Tatran Bohunice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Slovan Rosice or draw
80%
Slovan Rosice or Tatran Bohunice
75%
Draw or Tatran Bohunice
44%

Winning margin

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
30%
Tatran Bohunice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
80%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
48%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
22%
Tatran Bohunice 1+ goals
58%
Tatran Bohunice 2+ goals
21%
Tatran Bohunice 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
74%
Tatran Bohunice (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Rosice at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.85 · 68 matches

Tatran Bohunice away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Rosice attack 1.60 + Tatran Bohunice defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Tatran Bohunice attack 0.88 + Slovan Rosice defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Slovan Rosice scores more
56%
level
25%
Tatran Bohunice scores more
20%

Slovan Rosice at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
M. KralOwn goal
34'
D. MouckaPenalty
42'
R. Soucek
56'
M. Vintr← M. Vintr
56'
O. Doubravsky← O. Doubravsky
65'
R. Sevcik← R. Sevcik
66'
K. Kulik
70'
D. Moucka
70'
T. Koren← T. Koren
76'
M. Vintr
78'
A. Fila
78'
M. Krsak← M. Krsak
78'
T. Dobrovodsky← T. Dobrovodsky
87'
T. Koren
90+1'
R. Sevcik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Rosice vs Tatran Bohunice

Slovan Rosice and Tatran Bohunice drew 2-2 in 3. liga - MSFL on May 1, 2024.

Goals: M. Kral (4' o.g.), D. Moucka (34' pen), M. Vintr (76'), T. Koren (87').

The match was played at Hřiště FC Slovan in Rosice.