Tatran Bohunice 4–0 Humpolec: Result & Stats

Tatran Bohunice

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Humpolec

4/25/2026

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tatran Bohunice58%

×Draw22%

Humpolec20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran BohuniceExpected goals in this matchHumpolec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.02

Tatran Bohunice

1.91

Humpolec

1.02

Tatran Bohunice creates 87% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 80 away

1.79

creates per match

1.10

0.95

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Tatran Bohunice

1.79

Humpolec

1.10

allows per match

Tatran Bohunice

0.95

Humpolec

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Bohunice+0.00on par

Humpolec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Bohunice ↓

Humpolec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Tatran Bohunice or draw

80%

Tatran Bohunice or Humpolec

78%

Draw or Humpolec

42%

Winning margin

Tatran Bohunice wins by 2+

34%

Humpolec wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tatran Bohunice 1+ goals

85%

Tatran Bohunice 2+ goals

57%

Tatran Bohunice 3+ goals

30%

Humpolec 1+ goals

64%

Humpolec 2+ goals

27%

Humpolec 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tatran Bohunice (draw refunded)

74%

Humpolec (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Bohunice at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

Humpolec away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Bohunice attack 1.79 + Humpolec defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.91

Humpolec attack 1.10 + Tatran Bohunice defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tatran Bohunice scores more

58%

level

22%

Humpolec scores more

20%

Tatran Bohunice at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tatran Bohunice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff