Humpolec 3–0 Tatran Bohunice: Result & Stats

Humpolec

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tatran Bohunice

4/18/2025

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 22Stadion A.F.C. Humpolec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Humpolec38%

×Draw24%

Tatran Bohunice38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HumpolecExpected goals in this matchTatran Bohunice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.53

Humpolec

1.54

Tatran Bohunice

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 43 away

1.65

creates per match

1.47

1.59

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Humpolec

1.65

Tatran Bohunice

1.47

allows per match

Humpolec

1.59

Tatran Bohunice

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Humpolec+0.00on par

Tatran Bohunice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humpolec ↓

Tatran Bohunice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Humpolec or draw

62%

Humpolec or Tatran Bohunice

76%

Draw or Tatran Bohunice

62%

Winning margin

Humpolec wins by 2+

19%

Tatran Bohunice wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Humpolec 1+ goals

79%

Humpolec 2+ goals

45%

Humpolec 3+ goals

20%

Tatran Bohunice 1+ goals

78%

Tatran Bohunice 2+ goals

45%

Tatran Bohunice 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Humpolec (draw refunded)

50%

Tatran Bohunice (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humpolec at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.59 · 80 matches

Tatran Bohunice away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.44 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humpolec attack 1.65 + Tatran Bohunice defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tatran Bohunice attack 1.47 + Humpolec defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Humpolec scores more

38%

level

24%

Tatran Bohunice scores more

38%

Humpolec at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Humpolec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff