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Tatabánya vs Móri SE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Tatabánya
Tatabánya
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Móri SE
Móri SE
T. Marton 86'
G. Szegleti 43'
I. Szego 6'
B. Szombati 71'
P. Tolgyesi 53'
2/26/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 23Grosics Gyula Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tatabánya63%
×Draw20%
Móri SE17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatabánya
2.18
Móri SE
1.05

Tatabánya creates 108% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tatabánya
1.89
Móri SE
1.16

allows per match

Tatabánya
0.95
Móri SE
2.47

finishing

Tatabánya+0.00on par
Móri SE+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatabánya ↓

Móri SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tatabánya or draw
83%
Tatabánya or Móri SE
80%
Draw or Móri SE
37%

Winning margin

Tatabánya wins by 2+
40%
Móri SE wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tatabánya 1+ goals
89%
Tatabánya 2+ goals
64%
Tatabánya 3+ goals
37%
Móri SE 1+ goals
65%
Móri SE 2+ goals
28%
Móri SE 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tatabánya (draw refunded)
78%
Móri SE (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatabánya at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.95 · 57 matches

Móri SE away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatabánya attack 1.89 + Móri SE defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.18

Móri SE attack 1.16 + Tatabánya defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tatabánya scores more
63%
level
20%
Móri SE scores more
17%

Tatabánya at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tatabánya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
I. Szego
43'
G. Szegleti
53'
P. Tolgyesi
71'
B. Szombati
86'
T. Marton

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatabánya vs Móri SE

Tatabánya beat Móri SE 3-2 in NB III - Southwest on February 26, 2023.

Goals: I. Szego (6'), G. Szegleti (43'), P. Tolgyesi (53'), B. Szombati (71'), T. Marton (86').

The match was played at Grosics Gyula Stadion in Tatabánya.