Móri SE 1–5 Tatabánya: Result & Stats

Móri SE

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 4

Tatabánya

K. Kovacs 43'

T. Molnar 84', 40'

D. Arvai 45', 28'

G. Kocsis 37'

8/17/2022

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 4Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Móri SE17%

×Draw22%

Tatabánya61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Móri SEExpected goals in this matchTatabánya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.89

Móri SE

0.88

Tatabánya

1.89

Tatabánya creates 115% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

0.68

creates per match

1.35

2.42

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Móri SE

0.68

Tatabánya

1.35

allows per match

Móri SE

2.42

Tatabánya

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Móri SE+0.00on par

Tatabánya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móri SE ↓

Tatabánya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Móri SE or draw

39%

Móri SE or Tatabánya

78%

Draw or Tatabánya

83%

Winning margin

Móri SE wins by 2+

5%

Tatabánya wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Móri SE 1+ goals

59%

Móri SE 2+ goals

22%

Móri SE 3+ goals

6%

Tatabánya 1+ goals

85%

Tatabánya 2+ goals

56%

Tatabánya 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Móri SE (draw refunded)

22%

Tatabánya (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móri SE at home — creates 0.68, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

Tatabánya away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móri SE attack 0.68 + Tatabánya defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.88

Tatabánya attack 1.35 + Móri SE defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Móri SE scores more

17%

level

22%

Tatabánya scores more

61%

Tatabánya at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tatabánya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

D. Arvai

37'

G. Kocsis

40'

T. Molnar

43'

K. Kovacs

45'

D. Arvai

84'

T. Molnar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff