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Tatabánya vs Haladás VSE — NB III - Northwest 2019

Tatabánya
Tatabánya
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Haladás VSE
Haladás VSE
3/22/2026NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 21Grosics Gyula Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tatabánya54%
×Draw23%
Haladás VSE23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatabánya
1.78
Haladás VSE
1.07

Tatabánya creates 66% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tatabánya
2.03
Haladás VSE
1.27

allows per match

Tatabánya
0.87
Haladás VSE
1.53

finishing

Tatabánya+0.00on par
Haladás VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatabánya ↓

Haladás VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tatabánya or draw
77%
Tatabánya or Haladás VSE
77%
Draw or Haladás VSE
46%

Winning margin

Tatabánya wins by 2+
30%
Haladás VSE wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tatabánya 1+ goals
83%
Tatabánya 2+ goals
53%
Tatabánya 3+ goals
26%
Haladás VSE 1+ goals
66%
Haladás VSE 2+ goals
29%
Haladás VSE 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tatabánya (draw refunded)
70%
Haladás VSE (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatabánya at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

Haladás VSE away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatabánya attack 2.03 + Haladás VSE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.78

Haladás VSE attack 1.27 + Tatabánya defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tatabánya scores more
54%
level
23%
Haladás VSE scores more
23%

Tatabánya at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tatabánya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Tatabánya 1–1 Haladás VSE

Tatabánya and Haladás VSE drew 1-1 in NB III - Northwest on March 22, 2026.

The match was played at Grosics Gyula Stadion in Tatabanya.