Haladás VSE 0–1 Tatabánya: Result & Stats

Haladás VSE

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tatabánya

5/26/2024

NB III - Northwest · Northwest - 30Haladás Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Haladás VSE27%

×Draw22%

Tatabánya51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Haladás VSEExpected goals in this matchTatabánya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.92

Haladás VSE

1.34

Tatabánya

1.92

Tatabánya creates 43% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.38

creates per match

2.07

1.76

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Haladás VSE

1.38

Tatabánya

2.07

allows per match

Haladás VSE

1.76

Tatabánya

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haladás VSE+0.00on par

Tatabánya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haladás VSE ↓

Tatabánya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Haladás VSE or draw

49%

Haladás VSE or Tatabánya

78%

Draw or Tatabánya

73%

Winning margin

Haladás VSE wins by 2+

11%

Tatabánya wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Haladás VSE 1+ goals

74%

Haladás VSE 2+ goals

39%

Haladás VSE 3+ goals

15%

Tatabánya 1+ goals

85%

Tatabánya 2+ goals

57%

Tatabánya 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Haladás VSE (draw refunded)

35%

Tatabánya (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haladás VSE at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.76 · 45 matches

Tatabánya away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haladás VSE attack 1.38 + Tatabánya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tatabánya attack 2.07 + Haladás VSE defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Haladás VSE scores more

27%

level

22%

Tatabánya scores more

51%

Tatabánya at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tatabánya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff