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Tatabánya vs Balatonfüredi — NB III - Northwest 2019

Tatabánya
Tatabánya
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Balatonfüredi
Balatonfüredi
D. Kiprich 31'
8/19/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 4Grosics Gyula Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tatabánya63%
×Draw21%
Balatonfüredi16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatabánya
2.05
Balatonfüredi
0.92

Tatabánya creates 123% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tatabánya
2.03
Balatonfüredi
0.96

allows per match

Tatabánya
0.87
Balatonfüredi
2.07

finishing

Tatabánya+0.00on par
Balatonfüredi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatabánya ↓

Balatonfüredi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tatabánya or draw
84%
Tatabánya or Balatonfüredi
79%
Draw or Balatonfüredi
37%

Winning margin

Tatabánya wins by 2+
39%
Balatonfüredi wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tatabánya 1+ goals
87%
Tatabánya 2+ goals
61%
Tatabánya 3+ goals
33%
Balatonfüredi 1+ goals
60%
Balatonfüredi 2+ goals
23%
Balatonfüredi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tatabánya (draw refunded)
80%
Balatonfüredi (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatabánya at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

Balatonfüredi away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.07 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatabánya attack 2.03 + Balatonfüredi defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.05

Balatonfüredi attack 0.96 + Tatabánya defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tatabánya scores more
63%
level
21%
Balatonfüredi scores more
16%

Tatabánya at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tatabánya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
D. Kiprich

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatabánya vs Balatonfüredi

Tatabánya beat Balatonfüredi 1-0 in NB III - Northwest on August 19, 2023.

Goals: D. Kiprich (31').

The match was played at Grosics Gyula Stadion in Tatabánya.