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Balatonfüredi vs Tatabánya — NB III - Northwest 2019

Balatonfüredi
Balatonfüredi
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tatabánya
Tatabánya
3/10/2024NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 19Balatonfüredi Városi Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Balatonfüredi23%
×Draw23%
Tatabánya53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balatonfüredi
1.10
Tatabánya
1.78

Tatabánya creates 62% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Balatonfüredi
0.91
Tatabánya
2.07

allows per match

Balatonfüredi
1.49
Tatabánya
1.30

finishing

Balatonfüredi+0.00on par
Tatabánya+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balatonfüredi ↓

Tatabánya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Balatonfüredi or draw
47%
Balatonfüredi or Tatabánya
77%
Draw or Tatabánya
77%

Winning margin

Balatonfüredi wins by 2+
9%
Tatabánya wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Balatonfüredi 1+ goals
67%
Balatonfüredi 2+ goals
30%
Balatonfüredi 3+ goals
10%
Tatabánya 1+ goals
83%
Tatabánya 2+ goals
53%
Tatabánya 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Balatonfüredi (draw refunded)
31%
Tatabánya (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balatonfüredi at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

Tatabánya away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balatonfüredi attack 0.91 + Tatabánya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.10

Tatabánya attack 2.07 + Balatonfüredi defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Balatonfüredi scores more
23%
level
23%
Tatabánya scores more
53%

Tatabánya at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tatabánya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balatonfüredi vs Tatabánya

Tatabánya beat Balatonfüredi 2-0 in NB III - Northwest on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Balatonfüredi Városi Sportpálya in Balatonfüred.