Tasmania Berlin 5–0 Sparta Lichtenberg

Tasmania Berlin

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Sparta Lichtenberg

12/14/2025

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 13Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Tasmania Berlin51%

×Draw21%

Sparta Lichtenberg28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tasmania BerlinExpected goals in this matchSparta Lichtenberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.60

Tasmania Berlin

2.20

Sparta Lichtenberg

1.60

Tasmania Berlin creates 38% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 44 away

2.12

creates per match

1.89

1.32

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Tasmania Berlin

2.12

Sparta Lichtenberg

1.89

allows per match

Tasmania Berlin

1.32

Sparta Lichtenberg

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Sparta Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tasmania Berlin ↓

Sparta Lichtenberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Tasmania Berlin or draw

72%

Tasmania Berlin or Sparta Lichtenberg

79%

Draw or Sparta Lichtenberg

49%

Winning margin

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+

31%

Sparta Lichtenberg wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals

89%

Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals

64%

Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals

37%

Sparta Lichtenberg 1+ goals

80%

Sparta Lichtenberg 2+ goals

47%

Sparta Lichtenberg 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)

64%

Sparta Lichtenberg (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tasmania Berlin at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

Sparta Lichtenberg away — creates 1.89, concedes 2.27 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tasmania Berlin attack 2.12 + Sparta Lichtenberg defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.20

Sparta Lichtenberg attack 1.89 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tasmania Berlin scores more

51%

level

21%

Sparta Lichtenberg scores more

28%

Tasmania Berlin at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tasmania Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff