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Sparta Lichtenberg vs Tasmania Berlin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Sparta Lichtenberg
Sparta Lichtenberg
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
11/26/2023Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 14Rasenplatz Fischerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sparta Lichtenberg51%
×Draw20%
Tasmania Berlin30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Lichtenberg
2.44
Tasmania Berlin
1.85

Sparta Lichtenberg creates 32% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sparta Lichtenberg
3.23
Tasmania Berlin
1.70

allows per match

Sparta Lichtenberg
2.00
Tasmania Berlin
1.65

finishing

Sparta Lichtenberg+0.00on par
Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Lichtenberg ↓

Tasmania Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Sparta Lichtenberg or draw
70%
Sparta Lichtenberg or Tasmania Berlin
80%
Draw or Tasmania Berlin
49%

Winning margin

Sparta Lichtenberg wins by 2+
31%
Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sparta Lichtenberg 1+ goals
91%
Sparta Lichtenberg 2+ goals
70%
Sparta Lichtenberg 3+ goals
43%
Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
84%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
55%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Sparta Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
63%
Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Lichtenberg at home — creates 3.23, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

Tasmania Berlin away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Lichtenberg attack 3.23 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.44

Tasmania Berlin attack 1.70 + Sparta Lichtenberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sparta Lichtenberg scores more
51%
level
20%
Tasmania Berlin scores more
30%

Sparta Lichtenberg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sparta Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Sparta Lichtenberg 4–2 Tasmania Berlin

Sparta Lichtenberg beat Tasmania Berlin 4-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Rasenplatz Fischerstraße in Berlin.