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Tasmania Berlin vs RSV Eintracht — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
CANC
12:00
RSV Eintracht
RSV Eintracht
5/9/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 30Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Tasmania Berlin50%
×Draw21%
RSV Eintracht28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tasmania Berlin
2.05
RSV Eintracht
1.50

Tasmania Berlin creates 37% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 51 away

creates per match

Tasmania Berlin
2.12
RSV Eintracht
1.67

allows per match

Tasmania Berlin
1.32
RSV Eintracht
1.98

finishing

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par
RSV Eintracht+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tasmania Berlin ↓

RSV Eintracht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Tasmania Berlin or draw
72%
Tasmania Berlin or RSV Eintracht
79%
Draw or RSV Eintracht
50%

Winning margin

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
29%
RSV Eintracht wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
87%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
61%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
33%
RSV Eintracht 1+ goals
78%
RSV Eintracht 2+ goals
44%
RSV Eintracht 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
64%
RSV Eintracht (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tasmania Berlin at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

RSV Eintracht away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.98 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tasmania Berlin attack 2.12 + RSV Eintracht defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.05

RSV Eintracht attack 1.67 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tasmania Berlin scores more
50%
level
21%
RSV Eintracht scores more
28%

Tasmania Berlin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tasmania Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tasmania Berlin face RSV Eintracht (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord returns with Tasmania Berlin hosting RSV Eintracht. Match starts May 9, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tasmania Berlin host RSV Eintracht at Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.