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RSV Eintracht vs Tasmania Berlin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

RSV Eintracht
RSV Eintracht
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
9/2/2023Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 5Sportplatz Heinrich-Zille-Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

RSV Eintracht39%
×Draw23%
Tasmania Berlin38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSV Eintracht
1.67
Tasmania Berlin
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 66 away

creates per match

RSV Eintracht
1.69
Tasmania Berlin
1.70

allows per match

RSV Eintracht
1.56
Tasmania Berlin
1.65

finishing

RSV Eintracht+0.00on par
Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSV Eintracht ↓

Tasmania Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

RSV Eintracht or draw
62%
RSV Eintracht or Tasmania Berlin
77%
Draw or Tasmania Berlin
61%

Winning margin

RSV Eintracht wins by 2+
20%
Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

RSV Eintracht 1+ goals
81%
RSV Eintracht 2+ goals
50%
RSV Eintracht 3+ goals
23%
Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
80%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
48%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

RSV Eintracht (draw refunded)
51%
Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSV Eintracht at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

Tasmania Berlin away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSV Eintracht attack 1.69 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tasmania Berlin attack 1.70 + RSV Eintracht defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

RSV Eintracht scores more
39%
level
23%
Tasmania Berlin scores more
38%

RSV Eintracht at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "RSV Eintracht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RSV Eintracht vs Tasmania Berlin

Tasmania Berlin beat RSV Eintracht 4-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Heinrich-Zille-Straße in Stahnsdorf.