Tasmania Berlin 3–1 Optik Rathenow: Result & Stats

Tasmania Berlin

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Optik Rathenow

2/11/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 16Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Tasmania Berlin55%

×Draw21%

Optik Rathenow23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tasmania BerlinExpected goals in this matchOptik Rathenow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.29

Tasmania Berlin

2.08

Optik Rathenow

1.29

Tasmania Berlin creates 61% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 62 away

2.12

creates per match

1.26

1.32

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Tasmania Berlin

2.12

Optik Rathenow

1.26

allows per match

Tasmania Berlin

1.32

Optik Rathenow

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Optik Rathenow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tasmania Berlin ↓

Optik Rathenow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Tasmania Berlin or draw

77%

Tasmania Berlin or Optik Rathenow

79%

Draw or Optik Rathenow

45%

Winning margin

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+

33%

Optik Rathenow wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals

87%

Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals

61%

Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals

34%

Optik Rathenow 1+ goals

72%

Optik Rathenow 2+ goals

37%

Optik Rathenow 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)

70%

Optik Rathenow (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tasmania Berlin at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

Optik Rathenow away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.03 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tasmania Berlin attack 2.12 + Optik Rathenow defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.08

Optik Rathenow attack 1.26 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tasmania Berlin scores more

55%

level

21%

Optik Rathenow scores more

23%

Tasmania Berlin at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tasmania Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff