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Optik Rathenow vs Tasmania Berlin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Optik Rathenow
Optik Rathenow
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
8/1/2025Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 1Stadion Vogelgesang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Optik Rathenow38%
×Draw23%
Tasmania Berlin39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Optik Rathenow
1.63
Tasmania Berlin
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 66 away

creates per match

Optik Rathenow
1.61
Tasmania Berlin
1.70

allows per match

Optik Rathenow
1.59
Tasmania Berlin
1.65

finishing

Optik Rathenow+0.00on par
Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Optik Rathenow ↓

Tasmania Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Optik Rathenow or draw
61%
Optik Rathenow or Tasmania Berlin
77%
Draw or Tasmania Berlin
62%

Winning margin

Optik Rathenow wins by 2+
19%
Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Optik Rathenow 1+ goals
80%
Optik Rathenow 2+ goals
48%
Optik Rathenow 3+ goals
22%
Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
81%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
49%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Optik Rathenow (draw refunded)
49%
Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Optik Rathenow at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

Tasmania Berlin away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Optik Rathenow attack 1.61 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Tasmania Berlin attack 1.70 + Optik Rathenow defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Optik Rathenow scores more
38%
level
23%
Tasmania Berlin scores more
39%

Tasmania Berlin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tasmania Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Optik Rathenow vs Tasmania Berlin

Tasmania Berlin beat Optik Rathenow 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Vogelgesang in Rathenow.