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Tasmania Berlin vs Greifswalder FC — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
Preview
12:00
Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
8/30/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 7
46%
Greifswalder FC
model favours
29%25%46%

Greifswalder FC score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tasmania Berlin29%
×Draw25%
Greifswalder FC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tasmania Berlin
1.19
Greifswalder FC
1.56

Greifswalder FC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 33 away

creates per match

Tasmania Berlin
1.00
Greifswalder FC
1.12

allows per match

Tasmania Berlin
2.00
Greifswalder FC
1.39

finishing

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par
Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tasmania Berlin ↓

Greifswalder FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tasmania Berlin or draw
54%
Tasmania Berlin or Greifswalder FC
75%
Draw or Greifswalder FC
71%

Winning margin

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
12%
Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
70%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
33%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
12%
Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
79%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
46%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
39%
Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tasmania Berlin at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tasmania Berlin attack 1.00 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Greifswalder FC attack 1.12 + Tasmania Berlin defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tasmania Berlin scores more
29%
level
25%
Greifswalder FC scores more
46%

Greifswalder FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 90% of Tasmania Berlin’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Tasmania Berlin score first in only 20% of matches
  • Both teams score in 91% of Greifswalder FC’s matches
  • Tasmania Berlin have scored in 10 games running
  • Tasmania Berlin and Greifswalder FC have never met before
  • Both teams score in 80% of Tasmania Berlin’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Berlin
LWWWD
FC
DLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tasmania Berlin face Greifswalder FC (Regionalliga - Nordost)

Regionalliga - Nordost returns with Tasmania Berlin hosting Greifswalder FC. Match starts August 30, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.