Tasmania Berlin vs Greifswalder FC

Tasmania Berlin

CANC

13:00

Greifswalder FC

1/18/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tasmania Berlin24%

×Draw19%

Greifswalder FC57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tasmania BerlinExpected goals in this matchGreifswalder FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

2.53

Tasmania Berlin

1.61

Greifswalder FC

2.53

Greifswalder FC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

1.59

creates per match

2.00

3.06

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Tasmania Berlin

1.59

Greifswalder FC

2.00

allows per match

Tasmania Berlin

3.06

Greifswalder FC

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tasmania Berlin ↓

Greifswalder FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Tasmania Berlin or draw

43%

Tasmania Berlin or Greifswalder FC

81%

Draw or Greifswalder FC

76%

Winning margin

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+

11%

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals

80%

Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals

48%

Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals

22%

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals

92%

Greifswalder FC 2+ goals

71%

Greifswalder FC 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)

30%

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tasmania Berlin at home — creates 1.59, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tasmania Berlin attack 1.59 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.61

Greifswalder FC attack 2.00 + Tasmania Berlin defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tasmania Berlin scores more

24%

level

19%

Greifswalder FC scores more

57%

Greifswalder FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff