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Greifswalder FC vs Tasmania Berlin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
CANC
12:30
Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
11/1/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 10Volksstadion Greifswald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Greifswalder FC47%
×Draw23%
Tasmania Berlin30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greifswalder FC
1.80
Tasmania Berlin
1.38

Greifswalder FC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 66 away

creates per match

Greifswalder FC
1.95
Tasmania Berlin
1.70

allows per match

Greifswalder FC
1.05
Tasmania Berlin
1.65

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par
Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

Tasmania Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw
70%
Greifswalder FC or Tasmania Berlin
77%
Draw or Tasmania Berlin
53%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
26%
Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
83%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
54%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
27%
Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
75%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
40%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
62%
Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Tasmania Berlin away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 1.95 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.80

Tasmania Berlin attack 1.70 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more
47%
level
23%
Tasmania Berlin scores more
30%

Greifswalder FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Greifswalder FC vs Tasmania Berlin — Match Preview

Greifswalder FC face Tasmania Berlin on November 1, 2020 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Greifswalder FC host Tasmania Berlin at Volksstadion Greifswald.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.