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Tasmania Berlin vs BSC Süd 05 — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
FT
3 – 0
BSC Süd 05
BSC Süd 05
8/30/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 3Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tasmania Berlin60%
×Draw21%
BSC Süd 0519%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tasmania Berlin
2.04
BSC Süd 05
1.04

Tasmania Berlin creates 96% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 21 away

creates per match

Tasmania Berlin
2.12
BSC Süd 05
0.76

allows per match

Tasmania Berlin
1.32
BSC Süd 05
1.95

finishing

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par
BSC Süd 05+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tasmania Berlin ↓

BSC Süd 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tasmania Berlin or draw
81%
Tasmania Berlin or BSC Süd 05
79%
Draw or BSC Süd 05
40%

Winning margin

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
37%
BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
87%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
60%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
33%
BSC Süd 05 1+ goals
65%
BSC Süd 05 2+ goals
28%
BSC Süd 05 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
76%
BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tasmania Berlin at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

BSC Süd 05 away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tasmania Berlin attack 2.12 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.04

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.76 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tasmania Berlin scores more
60%
level
21%
BSC Süd 05 scores more
19%

Tasmania Berlin at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tasmania Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Tasmania Berlin 3–0 BSC Süd 05

Tasmania Berlin beat BSC Süd 05 3-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 30, 2020.

The match was played at Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark in Berlin.