Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

BSC Süd 05 vs Tasmania Berlin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

BSC Süd 05
BSC Süd 05
CANC
12:00
Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
2/21/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 20Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

BSC Süd 0526%
×Draw23%
Tasmania Berlin51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSC Süd 05
1.25
Tasmania Berlin
1.82

Tasmania Berlin creates 46% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 66 away

creates per match

BSC Süd 05
0.85
Tasmania Berlin
1.70

allows per match

BSC Süd 05
1.95
Tasmania Berlin
1.65

finishing

BSC Süd 05+0.00on par
Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Süd 05 ↓

Tasmania Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

BSC Süd 05 or draw
49%
BSC Süd 05 or Tasmania Berlin
77%
Draw or Tasmania Berlin
74%

Winning margin

BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+
11%
Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

BSC Süd 05 1+ goals
71%
BSC Süd 05 2+ goals
36%
BSC Süd 05 3+ goals
13%
Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
84%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
54%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)
34%
Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Süd 05 at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

Tasmania Berlin away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.85 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tasmania Berlin attack 1.70 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

BSC Süd 05 scores more
26%
level
23%
Tasmania Berlin scores more
51%

Tasmania Berlin at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tasmania Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BSC Süd 05 vs Tasmania Berlin — Match Preview

BSC Süd 05 face Tasmania Berlin on February 21, 2021 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

BSC Süd 05 host Tasmania Berlin at Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportplatz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.