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Tasmania Berlin vs BFC Preussen — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
BFC Preussen
BFC Preussen
R. Yajima 90+5', 64'
L. Mema 87'
P. Breitkreuz 29'
P. Magalhaes 23'
10/18/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 9Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tasmania Berlin30%
×Draw23%
BFC Preussen47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tasmania Berlin
1.46
BFC Preussen
1.86

BFC Preussen creates 27% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tasmania Berlin
2.12
BFC Preussen
2.40

allows per match

Tasmania Berlin
1.32
BFC Preussen
0.80

finishing

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par
BFC Preussen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tasmania Berlin ↓

BFC Preussen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Tasmania Berlin or draw
53%
Tasmania Berlin or BFC Preussen
77%
Draw or BFC Preussen
70%

Winning margin

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
14%
BFC Preussen wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
77%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
43%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
18%
BFC Preussen 1+ goals
84%
BFC Preussen 2+ goals
55%
BFC Preussen 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
39%
BFC Preussen (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tasmania Berlin at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

BFC Preussen away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tasmania Berlin attack 2.12 + BFC Preussen defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.46

BFC Preussen attack 2.40 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tasmania Berlin scores more
30%
level
23%
BFC Preussen scores more
47%

BFC Preussen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "BFC Preussen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
P. Magalhaes
29'
P. Breitkreuz
64'
R. Yajima
87'
L. Mema
90+5'
R. Yajima

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Tasmania Berlin 3–2 BFC Preussen

Tasmania Berlin beat BFC Preussen 3-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on October 18, 2024.

Goals: P. Magalhaes (23'), P. Breitkreuz (29'), R. Yajima (64', 90+5'), L. Mema (87').

The match was played at Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark in Berlin.