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BFC Preussen vs Tasmania Berlin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

BFC Preussen
BFC Preussen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
C. Gawe 82'
4/12/2025Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 24Preußenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

BFC Preussen60%
×Draw20%
Tasmania Berlin20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFC Preussen
2.19
Tasmania Berlin
1.19

BFC Preussen creates 84% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

creates per match

BFC Preussen
2.73
Tasmania Berlin
1.70

allows per match

BFC Preussen
0.67
Tasmania Berlin
1.65

finishing

BFC Preussen+0.00on par
Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFC Preussen ↓

Tasmania Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

BFC Preussen or draw
80%
BFC Preussen or Tasmania Berlin
80%
Draw or Tasmania Berlin
40%

Winning margin

BFC Preussen wins by 2+
37%
Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

BFC Preussen 1+ goals
89%
BFC Preussen 2+ goals
64%
BFC Preussen 3+ goals
37%
Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
70%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
33%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

BFC Preussen (draw refunded)
75%
Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFC Preussen at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Tasmania Berlin away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFC Preussen attack 2.73 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.19

Tasmania Berlin attack 1.70 + BFC Preussen defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

BFC Preussen scores more
60%
level
20%
Tasmania Berlin scores more
20%

BFC Preussen at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "BFC Preussen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

82'
C. Gawe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: BFC Preussen 1–0 Tasmania Berlin

BFC Preussen beat Tasmania Berlin 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on April 12, 2025.

Goals: C. Gawe (82').

The match was played at Preußenstadion in Berlin.