Tarup-Paarup 0–2 Kolding IF: Result & Stats

Tarup-Paarup

FT

0 – 2

Kolding IF

3/16/2019

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 18Tarup/Paarup IF - Kunststofbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tarup-Paarup13%

×Draw20%

Kolding IF67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tarup-PaarupExpected goals in this matchKolding IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

2.02

Tarup-Paarup

0.73

Kolding IF

2.02

Kolding IF creates 177% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 35 away

0.57

creates per match

1.74

2.29

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Tarup-Paarup

0.57

Kolding IF

1.74

allows per match

Tarup-Paarup

2.29

Kolding IF

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tarup-Paarup+0.00on par

Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarup-Paarup ↓

Kolding IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–113%

0–213%

0–39%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tarup-Paarup or draw

33%

Tarup-Paarup or Kolding IF

80%

Draw or Kolding IF

87%

Winning margin

Tarup-Paarup wins by 2+

3%

Kolding IF wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Tarup-Paarup 1+ goals

52%

Tarup-Paarup 2+ goals

17%

Tarup-Paarup 3+ goals

4%

Kolding IF 1+ goals

87%

Kolding IF 2+ goals

60%

Kolding IF 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Tarup-Paarup (draw refunded)

16%

Kolding IF (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarup-Paarup at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarup-Paarup attack 0.57 + Kolding IF defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.73

Kolding IF attack 1.74 + Tarup-Paarup defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Tarup-Paarup scores more

13%

level

20%

Kolding IF scores more

67%

Kolding IF at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kolding IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff