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Kolding IF vs Tarup-Paarup — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Kolding IF
Kolding IF
FT
2 – 0
Tarup-Paarup
Tarup-Paarup
9/14/20182nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 8Autocentralen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kolding IF59%
×Draw26%
Tarup-Paarup16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolding IF
1.52
Tarup-Paarup
0.64

Kolding IF creates 138% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kolding IF
1.48
Tarup-Paarup
0.43

allows per match

Kolding IF
0.85
Tarup-Paarup
1.57

finishing

Kolding IF+0.00on par
Tarup-Paarup+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolding IF ↓

Tarup-Paarup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kolding IF or draw
84%
Kolding IF or Tarup-Paarup
74%
Draw or Tarup-Paarup
41%

Winning margin

Kolding IF wins by 2+
31%
Tarup-Paarup wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kolding IF 1+ goals
78%
Kolding IF 2+ goals
45%
Kolding IF 3+ goals
20%
Tarup-Paarup 1+ goals
47%
Tarup-Paarup 2+ goals
14%
Tarup-Paarup 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kolding IF (draw refunded)
79%
Tarup-Paarup (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolding IF at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Tarup-Paarup away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolding IF attack 1.48 + Tarup-Paarup defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tarup-Paarup attack 0.43 + Kolding IF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kolding IF scores more
59%
level
26%
Tarup-Paarup scores more
16%

Kolding IF at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kolding IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Kolding IF 2–0 Tarup-Paarup

Kolding IF beat Tarup-Paarup 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 14, 2018.

The match was played at Autocentralen Park in Kolding.