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Tartu Welco vs Paide II — Esiliiga A 2026

Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Paide II
Paide II
9/22/2024Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 29Raadi Roheline Jalgpallipark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Tartu Welco45%
×Draw21%
Paide II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tartu Welco
2.14
Paide II
1.85

Tartu Welco creates 16% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 63 away

creates per match

Tartu Welco
1.88
Paide II
1.97

allows per match

Tartu Welco
1.74
Paide II
2.40

finishing

Tartu Welco+0.00on par
Paide II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tartu Welco ↓

Paide II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Tartu Welco or draw
66%
Tartu Welco or Paide II
79%
Draw or Paide II
55%

Winning margin

Tartu Welco wins by 2+
26%
Paide II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tartu Welco 1+ goals
88%
Tartu Welco 2+ goals
63%
Tartu Welco 3+ goals
36%
Paide II 1+ goals
84%
Paide II 2+ goals
55%
Paide II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Tartu Welco (draw refunded)
57%
Paide II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tartu Welco at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.74 · 72 matches

Paide II away — creates 1.97, concedes 2.40 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tartu Welco attack 1.88 + Paide II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.14

Paide II attack 1.97 + Tartu Welco defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tartu Welco scores more
45%
level
21%
Paide II scores more
34%

Tartu Welco at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tartu Welco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Tartu Welco 2–2 Paide II

Tartu Welco and Paide II drew 2-2 in Esiliiga A on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Raadi Roheline Jalgpallipark in Tartu.