Paide II 1–6 Tartu Welco: Result & Stats

Paide II

FT

1 – 6

HT: 0 – 3

Tartu Welco

3/30/2024

Esiliiga A · Round 4Paide linnastaadion kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Paide II34%

×Draw21%

Tartu Welco46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paide IIExpected goals in this matchTartu Welco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

2.19

Paide II

1.88

Tartu Welco

2.19

Tartu Welco creates 16% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 75 away

1.86

creates per match

1.73

2.64

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Paide II

1.86

Tartu Welco

1.73

allows per match

Paide II

2.64

Tartu Welco

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paide II+0.00on par

Tartu Welco+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide II ↓

Tartu Welco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Paide II or draw

54%

Paide II or Tartu Welco

79%

Draw or Tartu Welco

66%

Winning margin

Paide II wins by 2+

18%

Tartu Welco wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Paide II 1+ goals

85%

Paide II 2+ goals

56%

Paide II 3+ goals

29%

Tartu Welco 1+ goals

89%

Tartu Welco 2+ goals

64%

Tartu Welco 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Paide II (draw refunded)

43%

Tartu Welco (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.64 · 64 matches

Tartu Welco away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.89 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide II attack 1.86 + Tartu Welco defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.88

Tartu Welco attack 1.73 + Paide II defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Paide II scores more

34%

level

21%

Tartu Welco scores more

46%

Tartu Welco at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tartu Welco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff