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Tartu Welco vs K-Järve JK Järve — Esiliiga A 2026

Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
5/18/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 11Tamme staadion (Tartu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Tartu Welco61%
×Draw19%
K-Järve JK Järve20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tartu Welco
2.42
K-Järve JK Järve
1.33

Tartu Welco creates 82% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 73 away

creates per match

Tartu Welco
1.87
K-Järve JK Järve
0.92

allows per match

Tartu Welco
1.75
K-Järve JK Järve
2.97

finishing

Tartu Welco+0.00on par
K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tartu Welco ↓

K-Järve JK Järve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Tartu Welco or draw
80%
Tartu Welco or K-Järve JK Järve
81%
Draw or K-Järve JK Järve
39%

Winning margin

Tartu Welco wins by 2+
39%
K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tartu Welco 1+ goals
91%
Tartu Welco 2+ goals
69%
Tartu Welco 3+ goals
43%
K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
74%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
38%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tartu Welco (draw refunded)
75%
K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tartu Welco at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.75 · 71 matches

K-Järve JK Järve away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.97 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tartu Welco attack 1.87 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.42

K-Järve JK Järve attack 0.92 + Tartu Welco defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tartu Welco scores more
61%
level
19%
K-Järve JK Järve scores more
20%

Tartu Welco at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tartu Welco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Tartu Welco 0–2 K-Järve JK Järve

K-Järve JK Järve beat Tartu Welco 2-0 in Esiliiga A on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Tamme staadion (Tartu).