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K-Järve JK Järve vs Tartu Welco — Esiliiga A 2026

K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
9/1/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 27Spordikeskuse staadion (Kohtla-Järve)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

K-Järve JK Järve27%
×Draw21%
Tartu Welco52%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

K-Järve JK Järve
1.53
Tartu Welco
2.18

Tartu Welco creates 42% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 73 away

creates per match

K-Järve JK Järve
1.18
Tartu Welco
1.74

allows per match

K-Järve JK Järve
2.62
Tartu Welco
1.88

finishing

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par
Tartu Welco+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

K-Järve JK Järve ↓

Tartu Welco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

K-Järve JK Järve or draw
48%
K-Järve JK Järve or Tartu Welco
79%
Draw or Tartu Welco
73%

Winning margin

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
12%
Tartu Welco wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
78%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
45%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
20%
Tartu Welco 1+ goals
89%
Tartu Welco 2+ goals
64%
Tartu Welco 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
34%
Tartu Welco (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

K-Järve JK Järve at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.62 · 73 matches

Tartu Welco away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.88 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

K-Järve JK Järve attack 1.18 + Tartu Welco defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.53

Tartu Welco attack 1.74 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

K-Järve JK Järve scores more
27%
level
21%
Tartu Welco scores more
52%

Tartu Welco at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tartu Welco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: K-Järve JK Järve vs Tartu Welco

K-Järve JK Järve beat Tartu Welco 2-1 in Esiliiga A on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Spordikeskuse staadion (Kohtla-Järve).