Tartu Kalev 0–0 Pärnu: Result & Stats | Esiliiga B

Tartu Kalev

FT

0 – 0

Pärnu

3/30/2024

Esiliiga B · Round 4Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tartu Kalev61%

×Draw20%

Pärnu19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tartu KalevExpected goals in this matchPärnu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.20

Tartu Kalev

2.25

Pärnu

1.20

Tartu Kalev creates 88% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 18 away

2.17

creates per match

0.89

1.50

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Tartu Kalev

2.17

Pärnu

0.89

allows per match

Tartu Kalev

1.50

Pärnu

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tartu Kalev+0.00on par

Pärnu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tartu Kalev ↓

Pärnu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Tartu Kalev or draw

81%

Tartu Kalev or Pärnu

80%

Draw or Pärnu

39%

Winning margin

Tartu Kalev wins by 2+

38%

Pärnu wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tartu Kalev 1+ goals

89%

Tartu Kalev 2+ goals

65%

Tartu Kalev 3+ goals

39%

Pärnu 1+ goals

70%

Pärnu 2+ goals

34%

Pärnu 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tartu Kalev (draw refunded)

76%

Pärnu (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tartu Kalev at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

Pärnu away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tartu Kalev attack 2.17 + Pärnu defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.25

Pärnu attack 0.89 + Tartu Kalev defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tartu Kalev scores more

61%

level

20%

Pärnu scores more

19%

Tartu Kalev at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tartu Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff